Buy now, food inflation will only get much worse

The wealthy owner and CEO of the Gristedes supermarket chain in New York City, John Catsimatidis, urged Americans to “purchase” now because food inflation will only get worse.

“For the month of March, I’ve noticed some pricing rises. Throughout April and May, I noticed them approaching. Between price increases and shrinkflation – where 32 ounces used to be 32 ounces, now it’ll be 28 ounces – food costs have risen by 12 to 20%, Catsimatidis told Brian Kilmeade on “Fox & Friends.” “riends,” he said on Tuesday.

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The billionaire CEO urged Americans throughout the country to stock up on their favourite items in order to “get a greater return on your investment,” particularly if prices rise in the coming three to four months.
Meanwhile, in February, inflation reached a fresh 40-year high of 7.9%, owing primarily to an increase in gas costs.

According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of gas was $4.32 on Tuesday.

Catsimatidis, who is also the CEO of United Refining, said that the price of oil and gas would fall if President Biden declared energy independence and modified his policies.
“North America could likely produce 50 million barrels per day and become energy self-sufficient. “He inquired.

“We should and could be energy independent, and if President Biden stood up and said, ‘We are going to be energy independent for North America,’ I believe the price of oil could drop to half in the next 90 days,” he added.

Why Food Prices Are Rising, Recent Trends, and 2021 Forecast

Food Price Increases: Five Reasons
Many factors influence food costs in the short term, making them volatile. Supply and demand, weather, disease outbreaks, conflict, and natural disasters are all examples of these factors.

There are five fundamental reasons that tend to push increasing food prices in the long run:

Oil prices are extremely high.

Food has to travel long distances, and rising energy prices increase shipping expenses. After an increase in oil futures, you should expect high gas costs six weeks later. Oil prices have an impact on agriculture as well. Fertilizer contains a substantial amount of oil byproducts. 2

Changes in the Climate

Extreme weather is becoming increasingly often as a result of climate change. It is caused by greenhouse gas emissions, which trap heat and raise air temperatures. More moisture is absorbed by hot air. It rains less, water evaporates from lakes and rivers, and the ground dries up. When it rains, the water flows off the soil rather than being absorbed into the groundwater. Floods ensue as a result, which can harm crops. 3

Aid from the government

Corn cultivation for biofuels is subsidised by the US government, which depletes the food supply and raises prices. The United States presently uses 37% of its maize production to produce ethanol. This is an increase from 6% in 2000. 4

Stockpile Limits Set by the World Trade Organization

The World Trade Organization (WTO) places restrictions on how much subsidised grain and wheat countries can add to global stocks. The agricultural industries of the United States, the European Union, and certain emerging countries are extensively subsidised. Those countries’ farmers enjoy an unfair trading edge. Stockpiling is prohibited by the WTO in order to reduce this advantage. However, amid a food scarcity, it limits the amount of food available. Food price volatility rises as a result of this. 5

More Meat Consumption

As the world’s population grows wealthier, people are eating more meat, particularly pork. For meat-based meals, more grain is required to feed the animals than for grain-based meals. Meat demand is increasing, which implies grain prices are rising as well. This could eventually compensate for decreasing meat and dairy demand in the United States. 67

Recent Developments

Every year, there are big events that have an impact on food prices. The following are some examples of recent years that have had a significant impact:

The COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic raised food prices by 3.3 percent in 2020. The majority of this was due to an increase of 4.4 percent in meat, fish, poultry, and eggs. Dairy products, which increased by 3.8 percent, were also a significant contributor to the increase. 8

In March, the federal government proclaimed a national emergency. Many folks bought food and started cooking at home instead of going out to eat. This increased the demand for cook-at-home meals. Countries blocked their borders to halt the virus from spreading, disrupting exports and imports. Food supply chains were stretched, resulting in a reduction in supplies.

The pandemic’s shifting economy had a particularly negative impact on meat, fish, dairy, and eggs.

Climate Disasters in 2018 and 2019

In 2018, food costs increased by 1.6 percent. Hurricanes prompted temporary price rises in pecan and chicken output. 1011

Food costs increased by 1.8 percent in 2019. Fourteen billion-dollar disasters struck the United States, including three large floods, eight severe storms, two hurricanes (Dorian and Imelda), and one wildfire. 1213

Dollar Impact on Food Costs in 2016 and 2017

Food costs were predicted to climb by 1 percent to 2 percent in 2016. Rather, they increased by 0.3 percent. Egg prices dropped 21.1 percent from their 2015 highs, resulting in a lower-than-expected increase in food prices.

In 2017, food prices increased by 0.9 percent, coming close to the USDA’s forecast of a 1% increase. Exporting more food allowed producers to control supply and raise domestic prices. 14

In 2017, oil prices were projected to remain stable. Instead, they increased, raising trucking prices.

Avian Influenza’s Impact in 2015
On average, prices climbed by 1.9 percent. Prices for beef and veal increased by 7.2 percent. Because of avian influenza, egg prices increased by 17.8%, although fish and seafood prices decreased by 0.9 percent.

How Natural Disasters Affected World Food Supply from 2011 to 2014

Food costs increased by 2.4 percent. The cost of certain foods increased as a result of the weather. Drought in the Midwest, for example, drove up beef prices by 12.1 percent. Fresh fruits, vegetables, and nuts have all increased in price as a result of the California drought, which is one of the worst on record. The cost of fresh fruit increased by 4.8 percent.


Food costs increased by 1.4 percent. Beef and veal prices increased by 2%. Farmers were compelled to butcher animals that had become too expensive to feed due to the drought in 2012. Commodity prices take several months to reach the grocery store. As a result, 2013 saw the brunt of the drought’s effects. Fresh vegetables and poultry were the hardest hit, with prices rising by 4.7 percent.


Droughts pushed up food prices, which jumped by 2.6 percent. Beef, veal, and poultry prices increased dramatically, but fruits and vegetables costs decreased. 15 Higher transportation costs were one explanation, as oil prices reached their second-highest level since 1987. Threats of military action by Iran, which threatened to seal the Strait of Hormuz, triggered this. 1516


The cost of living increased by 3.7 percent. In 2010, massive wildfires in Russia destroyed crops. Commodity speculators reacted by driving prices even higher in order to profit from the trend. 17 Corn, sugar, and cooking oil prices all rose as a result. Droughts in the southern United States curtailed hen production, resulting in higher egg prices. 18 As a result of the earthquake in Japan, fishing capacity has been reduced, decreasing seafood costs.

The Great Recession of 2008

According to the Consumer Price Index for food, prices increased by 5.5 percent. It was the highest growth in a single year since 1990.

In 2008 and 2009, commodity speculators drove up food prices. Investors flocked to commodities markets as the global financial crisis wreaked havoc on stock markets. As a result, oil prices hit a new high of $145 per barrel in July, causing gas prices to spike to $4 per gallon. Surge in demand from China and India, which escaped the brunt of the subprime mortgage crisis, contributed to this. Wheat, gold, and other associated futures markets were also affected by the asset bubble. Food prices have risen dramatically all throughout the world. As a result, food riots by starving people erupted in developing countries. 1920

Looking Ahead: The Pandemic’s Long-Term Effects

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a 1% to 2% increase in food-at-home (grocery store) prices in 2021. Prices, which were raised due to supply constraints during the pandemic, are expected to revert to normal. Food prices at home are expected to rise 3.5 percent in 2020.

Food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices are expected to rise by 2% to 3%, according to the USDA. After many eateries were forced to close due to the epidemic, demand will increase. 7

Important Points to Remember

In the long run, there are five fundamental dynamics that will continue to drive prices higher.
During the outbreak, food prices skyrocketed.
The highest increase in food prices in the last 30 years occurred in 2008.
In 2021, prices are projected to return to normal.

What is the impact of global food prices?

Food prices around the world have reached a 10-year high. Low supplies and excessive demand are driving up prices, especially for food staples like corn, barley, and wheat.

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